Market Outlook - Lumen Global Investments

Our View towards China (A) Market – Intrinsic Value vs. Intrinsic Risk

Have you missed the strong rally in the Chinese market since Fall of 2022 and wonder if you should get it?

See our view via this Tableau viz.

We are cautious though there are specific sectors like the financials that have value.

Ranking of World Sectors Using the Residual Income Model, based on Lumen’s calculated Cost of Equity – June 2022

Global Sectors Outlook as of June 2022 using the Residual Income Model and Lumen calculated Cost of Equity

Ranking of Regional Markets Applying the Residual Income Model and the Lumen-calculated Market Implied Expected Returns/Cost of Equity (June 2022)

Selected Regional Markets Outlook as of June 2022 – Value vs. Risk

Regional Markets and US Sectors Outlook Q1 2022 – Value vs. Risk

Please check out the Intrinsic Value column for the ranking of value and the Intrinsic Risk column for the ranking of risk – based on the Residual Income Model.

Navigating the Inflation Scare

While the current level of inflation is well above the long-term averages, there are good reasons to expect that inflation will remain benign, in Lumen’s view.

The less accommodative monetary policy points to higher real rates and possibly a healthy market correction typical in a late-cycle policy tightening.

Regional, Emerging, and Major Markets Investment Outlook – Value vs. Risk

Using the Lumen Global Value Compass calculated market-implied expected returns and stress-testing with the Residual Income Model, we discovered lots of value dispersion regionally and within the emerging world. Intrinsic risk is more skewed towards EM than DM.

China (A) Market and Sector Outlook in a Few Charts

Based on our intrinsic value vs. intrinsic risk calculation using the Lumen market-implied expected returns, we highlight a few sectors – healthcare, financials, and consumer staples for the China A-share market.

Lumen Global Investments – Investment Outlook Fall 2020

Global markets are at an unusually sharp inflection point reflecting an equally unusual convergence of uncertain geopolitical and public health outcomes markedly affecting economic activity and policy stances across advanced and emerging economies alike.

Read on to see why we believe an aggressive stance is justified.

Category: Market Outlook